This is a fantastic interview… for PR people working for campaigns
on what not to do! Everyone who wants to run for a political office
outside the Democratic sphere needs to study this and practice,
practice, practice, muscle memory of the voice! Right off at the
beginning …”I am not sure what Mitt Romney was saying, you would have
to ask him about his meaning.” Whenever someone asks your opinion, or
speculation about what someone else was saying, always, always, always,
(Unless they are dead!) defer the interviewer back to that person! Your
job is not to explain others but to explain yourself!
White guys of the
Republican party; the lady across from you is not your ally! Stop being
surprised and stumped when you are treated poorly and openly attacked;
this is what they do, they hate you and despise you and your world view;
and anyway who wants a President who cannot squash a little bug of a
women on ABC when you are going to be facing real men and bastards
around the world? Been there, done that, oh wait… still there and still
doing it.
Scott Walker this is for you; fire your whole PR staff now!
You were ill prepared, you need PR people who are going to slap you hard
on the face and punch you in the stomach just before such interviews so
you come out like a cage fighter ready to prove your strength, agility
and moves to take down your opponent. I also have observed cage fighters
circling studying their opponent and being strategic. Nothing wrong
with taking control by waiting without saying anything for the
interviewer to exhale all their – “I’ll get you, you bastard white guy!”
– and realize the interview is going badly because of their behavior.
Last piece of advice (For right now.) – this is the primaries, as Tom Meyers (Member of Ricochet.com.) said, ”
…something more to offer than warmed over Bill Kristolism.” Stop using
talking points developed by the central committee, be real (Hint –
original thoughts – your thoughts.). Throw out some unusual ideas go off
the path, even controversial, which you can follow-up on at a later
time. Because of course when you make controversial statements you get
the lime light and isn’t this what you want? You have to establish
yourself outside the pack; Republican candidates cannot be all saying
the same thing. Can they?
A blog highlighting stupid quotes, idiotic ideas and unreasonable power grabbing restrictions to American's lives in the name of "protecting" the American Citizen. Will it be all contempt - no because I am an American Citizen and I do think. So from time-to-time I will blow my own horn on what I believe will allow American Citizens to prosper and therefore America to continue to shine.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Sunday, February 23, 2014
In Response to the ruling coming from the Ninth Circuit Court:
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2014/02/19/10-56971%20web.pdf
I shared this with my son on Facebook and have edited it here:
The Ninth Circuit court did this to avoid open carry. They had to decide which was the more egregious to the lefties - concealed carry, or open carry. Open carry scares them to death - seeing guns in public! When the Second Amendment reads, "the right to bear arms SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED," which any government school graduate understands to mean both open carry and concealed carry are permissible. This ruling also suggests if anyone (At this point anyone who can pass theCalifornia background check San Diego County CCW qualifications.) who applies for a
CCW is refused then they have a new suit to make open carry the law
because the Ninth Circuit got one thing right - citizens have to be
permitted a Constitutionally protected right to carry guns if they so choose freely exercise that right. Thomas do you think
California sheriffs are just going to have a blanket policy of handing
out CCW? Also I assume this ruling has been stayed and will be put on
hold till the Supreme Court makes a ruling?
Thomas Sherer to Jim Sherer yes, totally agree. It was interesting that they do a really deep historical analysis that says that concealed carry became outlawed in the 1800s for social reasons, but open carry was still normal and expected for gentlemen. Now society has changed and people don't want to see guns anymore, but there needs to be some good way for lawful citizens to bear arms outside their homes.
First step is that San Diego will almost certainly appeal to the Supreme Court. Best case scenario is the court doesn't take the case... But that is unlikely given the split that exists among Federal Courts of Appeal. Assuming the Supreme Court goes our way which is not inconceivable given recent decisions like Heller and McDonald, "shall issue" will become the law of the land and anyone who is of good moral character can get a ccw. 2-3 years.
Jim Sherer "good moral character" is this going to be the same way they skirted obscenity laws - can't define it but I know it when I see it? Better yet skirt abortion restrictions - to save the life of the mother? So they leave it up to states to define good moral character and eventually there are several suits and splits by the lower courts as to "good moral character" and then we have 5 justices of dubious character defining for the rest of us what is "good moral character." If they were smart they would out and out fall back on the original wording of the constitution "shall not be infringed." Probably somewhere in their 200 page ruling someone would be smart to place the words.. only restriction will be people with federal felony convictions, or felony convictions, or felony convictions while using a firearm. Got to throw someone under the bus to satisfy the lefty's.
Here is what I thought would happen:
Jim Sherer The cities always appeal and waste gobs of taxpayers money on an already determined outcome - they are going to be slapped down. Why not instead, save the money, spend it on the children and write a law which allows citizens to conceal carry based on the CCW laws of states which do permit CCW? Naw, F**k the children we can't allow GUNS, ahhhhh we'd become like TEXAS [or, worse Wyoming havens for all which is Redneck and bigoted]!- added later for emphasis.
Here is what really happened:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/21/san-diego-wont-appeal-9th-circuit-on-concealed-car/
Hey Thomas what about this: Well I did not expect this. One of the smartest moves by a progressive ever. Not willing to gamble on how the Supreme Court was going to rule on those pesky four words, which the sheriff claims, I would assume he has sworn to uphold, can be overlooked "...shall not be infringed." Better to back down than become the sheriff remembered forever for claiming ..."shall not be infringed." meant, a background check, paying fees, interview and a gun course. Which someone in the article is quoted as saying, "...all other lawful qualifications." This is so rich and ironic; a case ruled by the Ninth Circuit court over the fact a CCW was denied to a citizen when others citizens were receiving CCWs. I can see the next case developing already - those who want a CCW but are denied because of the prohibitive cost of a CCW, or how about a deaf person failing the interview, or how about a citizen who is an introvert who is to nervous, or how about a citizen who speaks one of the 32 other languages recognized by California bureaucracy denied an interpreter for the interview (I am thinking of the Korean business men in South Los Angels during the Rodney King riots.); all perpetrated by San Diego county government. The final word is all adults understand interviews are always objective, truthful events leading to the best outcome; right?
What I hope happens is the Sheriffs office is so inundated by citizens requesting CCW the sheriffs office's resources are prohibitively used up by this endeavor to meet "...all other lawful qualifications." taking deputies of the street leading to an outcry by other citizens who actually could use them for real crime prevention instead of this TSA style smoke and mirrors crime prevention.
When people tell you what happens in California is going to spread to other states remember this case.
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2014/02/19/10-56971%20web.pdf
I shared this with my son on Facebook and have edited it here:
The Ninth Circuit court did this to avoid open carry. They had to decide which was the more egregious to the lefties - concealed carry, or open carry. Open carry scares them to death - seeing guns in public! When the Second Amendment reads, "the right to bear arms SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED," which any government school graduate understands to mean both open carry and concealed carry are permissible. This ruling also suggests if anyone (At this point anyone who can pass the
Thomas Sherer to Jim Sherer yes, totally agree. It was interesting that they do a really deep historical analysis that says that concealed carry became outlawed in the 1800s for social reasons, but open carry was still normal and expected for gentlemen. Now society has changed and people don't want to see guns anymore, but there needs to be some good way for lawful citizens to bear arms outside their homes.
First step is that San Diego will almost certainly appeal to the Supreme Court. Best case scenario is the court doesn't take the case... But that is unlikely given the split that exists among Federal Courts of Appeal. Assuming the Supreme Court goes our way which is not inconceivable given recent decisions like Heller and McDonald, "shall issue" will become the law of the land and anyone who is of good moral character can get a ccw. 2-3 years.
Jim Sherer "good moral character" is this going to be the same way they skirted obscenity laws - can't define it but I know it when I see it? Better yet skirt abortion restrictions - to save the life of the mother? So they leave it up to states to define good moral character and eventually there are several suits and splits by the lower courts as to "good moral character" and then we have 5 justices of dubious character defining for the rest of us what is "good moral character." If they were smart they would out and out fall back on the original wording of the constitution "shall not be infringed." Probably somewhere in their 200 page ruling someone would be smart to place the words.. only restriction will be people with federal felony convictions, or felony convictions, or felony convictions while using a firearm. Got to throw someone under the bus to satisfy the lefty's.
Here is what I thought would happen:
Jim Sherer The cities always appeal and waste gobs of taxpayers money on an already determined outcome - they are going to be slapped down. Why not instead, save the money, spend it on the children and write a law which allows citizens to conceal carry based on the CCW laws of states which do permit CCW? Naw, F**k the children we can't allow GUNS, ahhhhh we'd become like TEXAS [or, worse Wyoming havens for all which is Redneck and bigoted]!- added later for emphasis.
Here is what really happened:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/21/san-diego-wont-appeal-9th-circuit-on-concealed-car/
Hey Thomas what about this: Well I did not expect this. One of the smartest moves by a progressive ever. Not willing to gamble on how the Supreme Court was going to rule on those pesky four words, which the sheriff claims, I would assume he has sworn to uphold, can be overlooked "...shall not be infringed." Better to back down than become the sheriff remembered forever for claiming ..."shall not be infringed." meant, a background check, paying fees, interview and a gun course. Which someone in the article is quoted as saying, "...all other lawful qualifications." This is so rich and ironic; a case ruled by the Ninth Circuit court over the fact a CCW was denied to a citizen when others citizens were receiving CCWs. I can see the next case developing already - those who want a CCW but are denied because of the prohibitive cost of a CCW, or how about a deaf person failing the interview, or how about a citizen who is an introvert who is to nervous, or how about a citizen who speaks one of the 32 other languages recognized by California bureaucracy denied an interpreter for the interview (I am thinking of the Korean business men in South Los Angels during the Rodney King riots.); all perpetrated by San Diego county government. The final word is all adults understand interviews are always objective, truthful events leading to the best outcome; right?
What I hope happens is the Sheriffs office is so inundated by citizens requesting CCW the sheriffs office's resources are prohibitively used up by this endeavor to meet "...all other lawful qualifications." taking deputies of the street leading to an outcry by other citizens who actually could use them for real crime prevention instead of this TSA style smoke and mirrors crime prevention.
When people tell you what happens in California is going to spread to other states remember this case.
Monday, February 10, 2014
I was reading this article about the terror attack in San Jose California against... a power sub-station. A place where electricity comes in and through the use of transformers is boosted to a normal operating voltage to be transported along high voltage wires to where it is needed - the implication, from the opinion piece, is to Silicon Valley.
The American Spectator - Low Tech Terror on the Grid
http://spectator.org/articles/57742/low-tech-terror-grid
Here are my comments posted on The American Spectator as to why this opinion piece has it wrong:
Via a simple Google search, "firearms which shoot 7.62X39": From wiki.answers.com - "Several firearms. The first was the Simonov Carbine Semiautomatic (SKS). The best known is probably the AK47 (Kalashnikov) However, there are many other weapons chambered for this cartridge now. One Australian company is making bolt action lee-Enfield rifles in 7.62x39. The Czech marketing company CZ offers a bolt action hunting rifle in 7.62x39 (in term of energy produced, it's comparable to a .30-30 round). Ruger manufactures the Mini 30, which is a 7.62x39 variant of the Mini 14. 7.62x39 versions of civilian variants of the AR-15 and Daewoo K2 rifle have been manufactured, as well. Other military weapons aside from the Kalashnikov rifles (and which are often mistaken for AK type rifles) include the Chinese Type 68, Chinese Type 81, and Czech Vz.58, and there is a 7.62x39 variant of the Israeli Galil ACE in product."
So without eye witness accounts no one knows whether it was an AK47 or one of the above weapons, but if you want to make it a terrorist attack always best to claim the weapon of choice for terrorists - an AK47. But wait there is more. If someone wanted to hit the target areas from forty to sixty yards they would probably not use an AK47 it is not the choice of marksmen, especially when the evidence is: out of 120 rounds 110 hit their mark. These are not the results of an AK47 at the above distance, but more likely a hunting rifle or an AR - with a night scope. We are not told how far off the target the 10 rounds were - I assume it means they did not puncture any cooling fins/heat exchange but probably hit very nearby or in the structure around the cooling fins/heat exchange
So let me speculate as to why this is probably not a terrorist attack. If we assume this was a terrorist attack why shoot so many shots? Why from such a distance? I assume the distance was to expedite a getaway and to stay out of sight of the transfer station. But wouldn’t terrorists just disguise themselves and walk right up to the fence and fire, or cut through the fence, plant explosives, escape and detonate the explosives from a distance – like as they were driving away. Why not use larger higher caliper weapons to punch bigger holes, to drain the coolant oil faster and actually bring down the grid? Is this not the terrorist’s greatest allure and power to inflict so much damage quickly as to terrorize the population? But the transfer station did not go down and there was time to divert the power around the transfer station. More importantly they did not do the more spectacular, more terrorizing and clearly public statement of most terrorists and psychopaths - big explosions, noise and lots of confusion; why not shoot directly into the transformers causing explosions (Stated in the article) and immediate catastrophic failure to Silicon Valley and presumably the failure of some good size server farms not only plunging Silicon Valley into darkness but killing - maybe sixty percent to two-thirds of the internet traffic. No instead the attack was kept under wraps and only lately has been revealed long after the fact. Not the behavior of terrorists,but of extortionists.
This I believe was industrial sabotage/espionage by people within the power community, who knew how to bring down the power substation, but not catastrophically; who wanted to use the vulnerability of the transfer station to publicize the lack of hardening of the electrical grid. These are
individuals/persons who have a stake in seeing money and resources allocated towards hardening the electrical grid, or are in the business of providing backup power to, oh I don't know, to any server farm which when power is lost massive amounts of data are lost in a nanosecond; data many of the firms in Silicon Valley have guaranteed are unlosable. By its nature this event, so calculated,was too prepared for terrorism, but for extorting the intended victims into accepting the perpetrators services, protection, offer, analysis, utility cost increase or, legislation it was perfect.
Thursday, July 4, 2013
More humor about "bears" [Really they mean Grizzly bears] from your Federal Park Service
I started writing this while vacationing near Glacier National Park [I don't recognize the U.N. designation of Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park - what a park dedicated to keeping wilderness pristine i.e. survival of the fittest has to do with peace, I will never know.] in June 2011.
When Doris and I visited the park we received all the important information about how to stay alive [For Do-gooders - how not be eaten by Grizzly bears] in bear [Grizzly] country. You see this is the first thing you notice, the park service is out to convince the visiting public all the bears are the same. Maybe this is due to the guidelines for a peace park" requires social justice for bears. "In rare cases bears [Grizzlies] have attacked at night or after stalking people. These types of attacks are very serious [My emphasis - deadly] because it may [May? how about assuredly] means the bear is looking at you as prey [Liberal interpretation - the bear is going to maul you into unconsciousness and then eat you at his leisure]." Yes this sounds like the behavior of all bears! Anyway there are two types of bears - Black Bears which are not carnivorous and harm humans when humans get between a food source or offspring. The Park Service says at the end of all the warnings when "bear" is used, "If it's a black bear fight back. Defensive attacks by black bears are very rare. The Grizzly Bear is an out-an-out carnivore known to kill and eat humans unpredictably and without provocation. This is the bear which will stalk you and eat you at his leisure - they are man's predator. So this is the first humorous part - how does one know a Grizzly is stalking them? Is it like Yogi Bear when they skirt from one tree to tree, standing on their hind legs to hide behind the tree trunk? Then race to the next tree crashing through the underbrush? I assume they are very stealthy at hunting. But, another pamphlet says, "Don't Surprise Bears!" suggesting, "Bears usually move out of the way if they hear people approaching, so make noise." Another pamphlet piggy backing on this concept suggesting, "A loud shout every few minutes is more effective than wearing bear bells." Do you see my problem? The worst case scenario is being stalked by Grizzly bears and most assuredly being severely injured or killed and the authors of all these helpful suggestions want me to announce my position by shouting every few minutes? Then you turn the page on the official paper - "Waterton Glacier Guide" - given to you at the entrance and the headline boldly claims "The Challenge of Preserving "Quiet"" Definitely if hikers are yelling to not scare the grizzlies every few minutes!
Then there is this jewel, "If you see recent bear activity be especially vigilant. Consider going back the way you came; it is better to cut your hike short than to risk an encounter with a bear." [Liberal interpretation: don't go hiking - stay on the roads; all back country is off limits because of Grizzlies.] So if the shortest route out of the back country is forward. This silly pamphlet says it is better to go all the way back the way you came than proceed forward.
Well my friend Florian sent via Facebook about a hiker killed by a grizzly in Yellowstone National Park.
Man killed by grizzly at Yellowstone National Park - Idaho Press-Tribune: State:
"Park spokesman Al Nash said the couple saw the bear twice on their hike. The first time, they continued hiking. The second time, the grizzly charged them and the man told his wife to run. She called 911 on her cell phone, and other hikers in the area responded to her cries for help."
I wonder, if they saw the bear twice, was it stalking them?
"A spokesman for the Wyoming state tourism agency doubted the attack would cause anybody to change their Yellowstone vacation plans.
"What has happened here hasn't happened for a quarter century," Chuck Coon said. "It is very sad, though, and I'm very sorry to hear of it.""
Yeah, how many attacks like this will spur Wyoming state tourism to promote a culling of grizzlies, or a call to insure tourists be protected to protect tourism dollars. The fight will be on over pristine wilderness and tourism dollars.
When Doris and I visited the park we received all the important information about how to stay alive [For Do-gooders - how not be eaten by Grizzly bears] in bear [Grizzly] country. You see this is the first thing you notice, the park service is out to convince the visiting public all the bears are the same. Maybe this is due to the guidelines for a peace park" requires social justice for bears. "In rare cases bears [Grizzlies] have attacked at night or after stalking people. These types of attacks are very serious [My emphasis - deadly] because it may [May? how about assuredly] means the bear is looking at you as prey [Liberal interpretation - the bear is going to maul you into unconsciousness and then eat you at his leisure]." Yes this sounds like the behavior of all bears! Anyway there are two types of bears - Black Bears which are not carnivorous and harm humans when humans get between a food source or offspring. The Park Service says at the end of all the warnings when "bear" is used, "If it's a black bear fight back. Defensive attacks by black bears are very rare. The Grizzly Bear is an out-an-out carnivore known to kill and eat humans unpredictably and without provocation. This is the bear which will stalk you and eat you at his leisure - they are man's predator. So this is the first humorous part - how does one know a Grizzly is stalking them? Is it like Yogi Bear when they skirt from one tree to tree, standing on their hind legs to hide behind the tree trunk? Then race to the next tree crashing through the underbrush? I assume they are very stealthy at hunting. But, another pamphlet says, "Don't Surprise Bears!" suggesting, "Bears usually move out of the way if they hear people approaching, so make noise." Another pamphlet piggy backing on this concept suggesting, "A loud shout every few minutes is more effective than wearing bear bells." Do you see my problem? The worst case scenario is being stalked by Grizzly bears and most assuredly being severely injured or killed and the authors of all these helpful suggestions want me to announce my position by shouting every few minutes? Then you turn the page on the official paper - "Waterton Glacier Guide" - given to you at the entrance and the headline boldly claims "The Challenge of Preserving "Quiet"" Definitely if hikers are yelling to not scare the grizzlies every few minutes!
Then there is this jewel, "If you see recent bear activity be especially vigilant. Consider going back the way you came; it is better to cut your hike short than to risk an encounter with a bear." [Liberal interpretation: don't go hiking - stay on the roads; all back country is off limits because of Grizzlies.] So if the shortest route out of the back country is forward. This silly pamphlet says it is better to go all the way back the way you came than proceed forward.
Well my friend Florian sent via Facebook about a hiker killed by a grizzly in Yellowstone National Park.
Man killed by grizzly at Yellowstone National Park - Idaho Press-Tribune: State:
"Park spokesman Al Nash said the couple saw the bear twice on their hike. The first time, they continued hiking. The second time, the grizzly charged them and the man told his wife to run. She called 911 on her cell phone, and other hikers in the area responded to her cries for help."
I wonder, if they saw the bear twice, was it stalking them?
"A spokesman for the Wyoming state tourism agency doubted the attack would cause anybody to change their Yellowstone vacation plans.
"What has happened here hasn't happened for a quarter century," Chuck Coon said. "It is very sad, though, and I'm very sorry to hear of it.""
Yeah, how many attacks like this will spur Wyoming state tourism to promote a culling of grizzlies, or a call to insure tourists be protected to protect tourism dollars. The fight will be on over pristine wilderness and tourism dollars.
American Thinker, July 4, 2013, This Independence Day, Brownstein bemons a divided America.
From the article at this link
came the response from Bri2301. I commented but did not post since login from
Facebook, Google, or Yahoo required I share my contact list… I don’t think so!
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/07/this_independence_day_brownstein_bemoans_a_divided_america.html
Bri2301
"It's an excellent opportunity to consider how ominously our own
"political bands" are fraying."And they are. Although I live in the South, I do not consider myself an "evangelical". As a matter of definition, I'm a Conservative with strong Libertarian leanings, as I like to say, a "Republitarian".
I agree with Dave that RB is focusing on outcomes, not causes. The fundamental differences between what can loosly be defined as "left" and "right" have more to do with the the nature of government, the responsibility of the individual and ethical/moral beliefs (which are often strongly tied to religious belief or non-belief).
My view is that we on the "right" will never bring the majority of states like Massachusetts, New Jersey or Maryland over to our views. They've become comfortable in a statist society and like it. Not only that, they believe that they have a mission to impose those views on we that dwell in the area known as "fly-over country", where we are bereft of culture, education and anything but the most simple sorts of sophisticated society. That's the largest source of conflict at this time. Obama personifies this with his intent to "remake America"......
My response specifically to “…we on the “right” will never
bring the majority of states like Massachusetts,
New Jersey or Maryland over to our views. They've
become comfortable in a statist society and like it. Not only that, they
believe that they have a mission to impose theose views on we that dwell in the
area known as "fly-over country", where we are bereft of culture,
education and anything but the most simple sorts of sophisticated
society.” :
On the contrary, seeing the Census statistics and knowing
the shifting demographics of our country; looking at pictures of the northeast
in decay, seeing Detroit slowly de-evolve and the unwillingness for the
governments in Detroit – especially, the Northeast and Midwest to come to grips
over the loosing mathematical formula of tax more and spend more (The state
arbitrator assigned to Detroit by the courts overseeing Detroit’s bankruptcy
proposing bond holders and retirees receive ten cents on the dollar is not a
winning formula for blue cities, and states.). Detroit is the “canary in the coal mine” of
the continued decline of blue states and cities. Whence Detroit
goes so goes most of the northeast and Midwest.
How soon before even the government employees abandon these places scared for
their retirements and afraid they will be the only ones left in the crumbling
cities and states to pay the taxes to fund their benefits. The problems the
liberals have is they think there is a difference between social policy and
fiscal policy, but to a conservative the evidence is they are both about money
and plainly visible in Detroit is the proof they are right, and might I say,
the people who have left these places for better opportunities agree with the
conservative. In reality we won’t have to “bring” anyone “over to our views”
they themselves will do it through their own public policy.
So what does happen to a place like Detroit in desperate
decline – this is going to be the great story of the 21st century in
America the rise of the South and West (Not the far West) and the great
abandonment of 20th century progressivism. Why and how? A clearer
example, as outsiders looking in, in a place far ahead of America in
decline is the EU – where are people migrating to? Duh, the northern parts of
the EU and Great Britain
where there is prosperity and stable fiscal policies. Well we are 50 states of
the United States and at some point jealousy, desire, power and greed will
motivate the blue states to drop their drawers and prostitute themselves to the
markets and capitalism for some of the talent, brain trust and wealth being
denied, or sucked away by the more prosperous states. Jerry Brown may ridicule
Rick Perry, but the evidence of where prosperity and the demographics are
headed does not bode well for old Moonbeam.
I postulate the train has left the station probably ten
years ago and is at full steam and full speed; by the time the wreck happens
most fiscally conscious people will have positioned themselves appropriately outside,
in red states and likely red states with no state income tax or state sales tax
and those who still believe will be the worst off as they loose everything. If Detroit is the “canary in the coal mine” of fiscally
liberal cities, California
is the “canary in the coal mine” of states. As liberal politicians tout the
wealth and recovery of California, the biggest company in the world located in
California plans to assemble it’s “I” products in America – in Texas – not
good; the latest server farm for another major corporation in California is
turned on in a place called at Luleå
Sweeden at the Arctic Circle – not good; a major city (Stockton) is going
through bankruptcy trying to preserve their obligations to retirees by denying
bond holders and continuing full steam ahead to pay the cities promised
payments into the State Employees Retirement System and guess what, they still
don’t have enough cash – not good (What is not being reported about Stockton is
the wholesale abandonment of private property left behind by citizens
abandoning California and like Detroit it is just the observable tip of the
iceberg.); the unfunded liability for all the guaranteed future retirement
payments to state workers and teachers falls somewhere between 200 billion and
400 billion – not good; the amount of the fiscal deficit of the state of
California closely matches the amount of taxes which would have been paid by
the productive workers who now reside in other states – not good.
So what does
happen? What always happens, governmental decline, rise of hard workers and
entrepreneurs, new younger crowd of politicians hungry to make a difference, reality
and change of heart. So California
politicians become competitive, feel insignificant, feel powerless and become greedy.
They will promote drilling and fracking for the bonanza of oil and gas to get
back in the game and throw the environmentalists under the bus, they will throw
retirees under the bus with the excuse, “We were not around when these deals
were made and we are not obligated to fund a loosing scheme.” They will throw cities
under the bus telling them to get their own houses in order, tax policy will be
upturned throwing dependent citizens under the bus to draw productive, educated
and skilled workers and companies back. Oh and barking, snarling and pointing
fingers at the other 97% of 300 million Americans who are not Gay that they
have to accept, promote, embrace, accommodate and educate about Gays this will
very soon also be thrown under the bus (Anything to beat Texas, be back on the
front page, be taken seriously and gain some notoriety for the national political
stage!). How soon before Detroit
promotes public policy of giving land to corporations along with 10 year’s
worth of property tax waivers to build on abandoned private property and
promote employment for city residents. How soon before land is given away for
organic farming, or new housing; how soon are property taxes and cost of
services lowered to entice people to return and build. How soon before
breweries, or distilleries, or high tech startups are enticed to build on free property
and tax free land; how soon do businesses that need enormous amounts of water –
not being used because of the decline of the population – move in and provide
funds to fix the water infrastructure for a better deal to relocate in Detroit. What about
companies needing electricity gaining a favorable financial standing to build
in Detroit; using the surplus electricity now going unused in exchange for
improving or fixing public lighting. How soon? As soon as politicians decide they
want to be taken seriously; feel important and gain notoriety, or as I say get
back in the game.
No I disagree; the circumstances of markets have a way of
turning everyone into a conservative at one point just for preservation.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
So I commented two days ago (February 6, 2012) in regards to the commentary by Jonn Lilyea on this AP story. My comments are a analysis of why any regulation resembling the old "Assaults Weapons Ban" will not come to fruition.
http://thisainthell.us/blog/?paged=5AP:Beware Vetrans with Guns.
The want by
veterans to continue owning guns, practicing with them, having these guns
accessible for purchase and customizable is why the newest “Assault Weapons
Ban” will not come to fruition. The unintended consequence of the volunteer
army and war is hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of young men and women
who would never have carried, fired, and protected the lives of themselves and
people they have come to respect and love with those guns would not have
happened. Now when they return home to the United States they know these
weapons, they know how to handle these weapons, they know how these weapons
make a difference in a fire fight and they want the security these weapons
provide in their homes like they had in foreign lands. I also think as U.S. Citizens
they find resentment in the idea the same politicians who voted and sent them
to these wars are now saying … by the way not in this country.
This represents a vast shift in demographics of
uninvolved non-gun owners to very involved gun users since the last “Assault
Weapons Ban” (That and Dianne is 20? years older and has done nothing of
significance before or since and she is becoming nervous about her legacy.) I
surmise Dianne and the rest of the politicians of her thinking have
underestimated this shift and underestimated the authority, knowledge and
integrity these veterans are bringing to bear socially, politically and morally
against gun ownership restrictions. In fact, much like prohibition as the old
guard died off and the newer adults became active, whom were not scared of and
responsible with “adult beverages” things became more reasonable and relaxed
i.e. hard liquor being advertised on public airwaves and in magazines, the
building of thousands of microbreweries, the willingness to allow alcohol
purchases in grocery stores, at any hour and on Sundays and the expansion of
choice in all “adult beverage” selections. So to, when the 60′s Peace Nick, all
violence is bad, all guns are scary and evil crowd dies off and the wisdom of
the current crop of veterans takes their place, the shift away from more gun
control to less will continue as we have seen in the last twenty years.
On more reflection I also have come to the realization - in conjunction with a large demographic of the population having moved from uninvolved non-gun owners to very involved gun users the lawmakers on Capitol Hill and the White House are having to consider two new major impediments not there the last time the "Assault Weapons Ban" was implemented. Their names are District of Columbia vs Heller and McDonald vs Chicago which upended the strictest gun possession laws in the nation (Residents and non-residents could not possess guns even if they were driving through Washington DC or Chicago.) on the understanding the Second Amendment actually says what it says: "...the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." This standard (An originalist reading.) set by the court throws out any law which outright prohibits the owning of guns and transporting guns. Though the Supreme Court said "people" can own guns in both of these places and anywhere else "people" can be found in the United States they did not define how burdensome government requirements could be on the way to gun ownership and carrying said weapon. They also said nothing about ongoing burdensome requirements imposed on keeping and the continued.
The unintended consequence of government overreach like which is occurring in New York (Passed), Colorado (Passed), Oregon, Washington and California will be the many law suits challenging the constitutionality of theses more burdensome laws, the far differing rulings which will come out of the district courts and the prevailing wind of the Supreme Court in the direction of originalism; What could be contrary as the words most important to the upcoming cases will be: "...shall not be infringed." Not too many ways to "interpret" those four words. It is difficult to imagine an argument favorable to government entities necessitating infringing (Legislated laws creating a burden - financial, time, choice, privacy - requiring background checks with databases of "peoples" names, social security numbers, passport numbers, arrest records, conviction records and the level of record/conviction necessary to void this fundamental right; the fundamental right to not have to submit to an investigation of my character without just cause, requiring a drivers license from only that state to purchase a legally marketed commodity, interstate transportation of firearms i.e. if you buy a gun in one state then change residence to another, the state you move to cannot confiscate your firearm because they prohibit the sale of such weapons - states cannot regulate interstate commerce only the congress can (Which brings to mind if you buy in one state, move to another state and the second state requires registration, do you have to register since you bought the gun in a state which did not require registration?). Forfeiting copies of fingerprints to purchase a gun or ammunition - presumed innocence, having to buy a permit to own - registration of the firearm.) on "people" from gun ownership when the "people" and their guns are not causing an undue burden on the government. How will such a burden be established at the Supreme Court level? Not by hearsay, anecdotes and emotion, but by statistics and facts gathered by none other than government bureaucracies. Which on all levels are reporting the overwhelming number of deaths from guns are happening from suicide and handguns used by known criminals. To accept the known statistics: (From Wikapedia) "In 2010, there were 19,392 firearm-related suicide deaths, and 11,078 firearm-related homicide deaths in the United States." Of the 11,078 of "firearm-related homicides" XXX of the "firearm-related homicides" were homicides from guns purchased and owned and used by "people" deemed appropriate by the same bureaucracies; . The statistical analysis is - there is no statistical analysis - the XXX deaths by guns legally owned by the perpetrator in a nation with 300 million people where the estimates are 310 million guns are present will be difficult to argue as rising to the need for infringement by the government. With the rise of original-ism in the Supreme Court it is not unreasonable to see many of the current and proposed laws too gun ownership as being overly burdensome for "people" and the free exercise of this "fundamental right." One has to wonder how reticent the justices will be to actually endorse or define what might be acceptable infringement when clearly everyone can read the same four words "... shall not be infringed." Much like affirmative action and reverse discrimination - which is slowly being exorcised out of the law.
So to wrap up I want to explain the reason to my madness in using "people." I specifically noted this word from the original text, because I have learned and agree "words matter" and people use words for clear reasons. So why the use of "people?" Not citizen, not law abiding citizen, not landowners, not voters, not some people but "the people." Well today "people" has been supplanted by "law abiding citizens." Who are these law abiding citizens? Most people would say, " Those not convicted of a felony should be allowed to possess guns!" Really? The convicted felon like Bernie Madoff or Charles
Manson? Or how about Martha Stewart, or Mark David Chapman? This category "Felon" covers a lot of crimes and is growing
every day through federal statutes which Federal Employees - not elected
officials - write and categorize as felony convictions if violated. Most of these crimes are not gun related. So why is the ability to exercise the Second Amendment not allowed? So when I read someone say, "Clearly, background checks are acceptable" i.e. not an infringement, it actually means the opposite of what the speakers is saying. It is not clear at all why background investigations should be required. So why "people?" The best explanation for "people" is the founders and writers of the Constitution believed this was such a fundamental right it transcended even American Citizenship. People - they do not say free, slave, Indian, non-Indian, citizen or non-citizen . And they did not use "law abiding" because they assumed those who committed crimes which would preclude gun ownership and carrying of arms would be executed. If all such criminals were not present in society then there was no reason to examine and verify the character of the individual or restrict the weapon being purchased. If there is an undue burden on the government it is not being caused by "the people." The undue burden is being caused by the Judicial Branch and an unwillingness to incarcerate and keep incarcerated or execute those convicted of gun crimes.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Received the following link from a friend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBnlXGvA1Wk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
We have argued in the past about car manufacturers being able to manufacture automobiles which can achieve 100 mpg. My point of view is the physics of internal combustion engines combined with the force of pushing an object through the atmosphere with the pull of gravity causing friction on four tires rolling along the earth makes such a car obsolete, untenable for transportation and as such unachievable.
So in response to what I see as pure propaganda and hyperbole:
OK, sounds terrific, however is this real world driving or on a test track? Did it include stops and stops? Did it include around town and then transition to freeway driving? My interpretation of the picture from the story showing the vehicle and following yellow vehicIe is it was done on a test track. From the comments on the YouTube page - "VW did sell in the US, but it did not sell well. So VW switched to larger diesel engines - "1.6-liter common rail four cylinder TDI rather than the 2.0-liter TDI we see here in the States." The EPA tests typically show lower mpg than what is realistic. For the car in question, EPA: 44, Consumer Reports: 51." And from the actual article about the test this: "Obviously, Conway is well versed in the art of driving for high fuel economy." And then this nonsense: "To enhance fuel economy it also has auto stop-start, low rolling resistance tires, and a programmed charging system so the alternator only runs when necessary." and then this: "With that kind of range, the Passat could go from New York to Los Angeles with a single stop for fuel" except for things called the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada no longer known by illiterate writers who never studied Geography. How do you think a fully loaded Diesel Passat with a 1.6 liter engine would fair going I 70 west out of Denver? What fine MPG would be achieved by a 1.6 diesel motor revved up to 5000 - 6000 rpms in second gear traveling at 35 MPH? Are you interested in driving a car with special low rolling tires - better yet do you think you can find such tires now at Wal-Mart or Sam's Club and how do you think these tires might perform in wet weather driving, or what would be the speed rating, mileage rating and cost for such tires? An alternator which switches on and off - great another expensive item which will go bad - much like AC compressors which cycle on and off and have a high failure rate. And how do you suppose they start the engine after it stops at a stop light? I would assume via the starter motor. Does this mean the starter motor will have to be replaced several times over the life of the car because it fails from being used so often? The final kibosh is mentioned nowhere in the article - the average speed at which this test was achieved. Are we all ready to go back to driving 50 - 55 mph so we can achieve such mpg's?
My friend Florian bought one of these with the 2.0 engine this spring and loves it. He bought it over the Prius because it gets better mileage than a Prius, it has way better driveability - it actually gets up and goes, can maintain speed driving up hills and can cruise at 75-80 mph's and still achieve higher mileage. I believe strongly in diesel powered cars as the best way to achieve high mileage vehicles i.e. the physics of diesel and the ability to get so much more power from a gallon of diesel to a gallon of gas, however in real world driving, in our consumerism society, with our geography Americans will never buy large quantities of small high mileage cars. As the article points out the 1.6 can be sold in Europe but not in America. Americans just won't buy such underpowered cars and any car which achieves 100 mpg (Mpg implies the average fuel economy. It means any vehicle which achieves 100 mpg is going to have to achieve significantly better than 100 mpg to compensate for the times it will fall significantly below 100 mpg for such things as: stopping, accelerating, changes in topography, weather, heat and cold.) will have to be significantly smaller, significantly lighter and significantly more underpowered than the current batch of cars.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBnlXGvA1Wk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
We have argued in the past about car manufacturers being able to manufacture automobiles which can achieve 100 mpg. My point of view is the physics of internal combustion engines combined with the force of pushing an object through the atmosphere with the pull of gravity causing friction on four tires rolling along the earth makes such a car obsolete, untenable for transportation and as such unachievable.
So in response to what I see as pure propaganda and hyperbole:
OK, sounds terrific, however is this real world driving or on a test track? Did it include stops and stops? Did it include around town and then transition to freeway driving? My interpretation of the picture from the story showing the vehicle and following yellow vehicIe is it was done on a test track. From the comments on the YouTube page - "VW did sell in the US, but it did not sell well. So VW switched to larger diesel engines - "1.6-liter common rail four cylinder TDI rather than the 2.0-liter TDI we see here in the States." The EPA tests typically show lower mpg than what is realistic. For the car in question, EPA: 44, Consumer Reports: 51." And from the actual article about the test this: "Obviously, Conway is well versed in the art of driving for high fuel economy." And then this nonsense: "To enhance fuel economy it also has auto stop-start, low rolling resistance tires, and a programmed charging system so the alternator only runs when necessary." and then this: "With that kind of range, the Passat could go from New York to Los Angeles with a single stop for fuel" except for things called the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada no longer known by illiterate writers who never studied Geography. How do you think a fully loaded Diesel Passat with a 1.6 liter engine would fair going I 70 west out of Denver? What fine MPG would be achieved by a 1.6 diesel motor revved up to 5000 - 6000 rpms in second gear traveling at 35 MPH? Are you interested in driving a car with special low rolling tires - better yet do you think you can find such tires now at Wal-Mart or Sam's Club and how do you think these tires might perform in wet weather driving, or what would be the speed rating, mileage rating and cost for such tires? An alternator which switches on and off - great another expensive item which will go bad - much like AC compressors which cycle on and off and have a high failure rate. And how do you suppose they start the engine after it stops at a stop light? I would assume via the starter motor. Does this mean the starter motor will have to be replaced several times over the life of the car because it fails from being used so often? The final kibosh is mentioned nowhere in the article - the average speed at which this test was achieved. Are we all ready to go back to driving 50 - 55 mph so we can achieve such mpg's?
My friend Florian bought one of these with the 2.0 engine this spring and loves it. He bought it over the Prius because it gets better mileage than a Prius, it has way better driveability - it actually gets up and goes, can maintain speed driving up hills and can cruise at 75-80 mph's and still achieve higher mileage. I believe strongly in diesel powered cars as the best way to achieve high mileage vehicles i.e. the physics of diesel and the ability to get so much more power from a gallon of diesel to a gallon of gas, however in real world driving, in our consumerism society, with our geography Americans will never buy large quantities of small high mileage cars. As the article points out the 1.6 can be sold in Europe but not in America. Americans just won't buy such underpowered cars and any car which achieves 100 mpg (Mpg implies the average fuel economy. It means any vehicle which achieves 100 mpg is going to have to achieve significantly better than 100 mpg to compensate for the times it will fall significantly below 100 mpg for such things as: stopping, accelerating, changes in topography, weather, heat and cold.) will have to be significantly smaller, significantly lighter and significantly more underpowered than the current batch of cars.
OK, I have finally returned to comment. What do you suppose lead me to comment? Yes more hyper-tension about Israel attacking Iran! Oh, my the sky is falling!
http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Do-Early-Elections-in-Israel-Imply-an-Israeli-Strike-on-Iran-This-Fall
In response to the above link I posted the following:
Oh come on, this is all horse hockey or is it horse puckie? Anyways -first Israel has the means to bring Iran to it's knees - destroy at will and in it's own time what it wants. Their nuclear weapons fall between "98" and "200" both numbers I have read via the internet (American intelligence at it's best). They have intercontinental missiles - which actually work - to deliver them with impunity. They are the premiere military power in this area and I would say the second or third in the world. So securing Iran's air space and flying without impairment is within it's capability. Finally they have the guts, the fortitude and will - "Never again."
Iran has no nuclear weapons, has a tin-pot third world nation military which farcically boasts claims of grandeur, has a economy and society decimated and hollowed by the Islamic revolution and the huge redirection of wealth from normal societal infrastructure into it's development of the atomic weapons program. I would also speculate on the quality of the "reinforced" structures "buried" deep underground. Israel does not have to destroy all of the parts of Iran's nuclear program they only have to destroy the part which is the most critical, deadly and most costly to permanently stop the process. Obviously the enrichment - disperse the already enriched material over a wide area, lethally contaminating the facility requiring a complete rebuild and reinvestment of billions of dollars. The financial collapse would be similar to that of the USSR, and surprise, surprise we would learn what we should already know - tin-pot dictators are all bombastic and never about substance. And democracies are about substance and never bombastic.
http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Do-Early-Elections-in-Israel-Imply-an-Israeli-Strike-on-Iran-This-Fall
In response to the above link I posted the following:
Oh come on, this is all horse hockey or is it horse puckie? Anyways -first Israel has the means to bring Iran to it's knees - destroy at will and in it's own time what it wants. Their nuclear weapons fall between "98" and "200" both numbers I have read via the internet (American intelligence at it's best). They have intercontinental missiles - which actually work - to deliver them with impunity. They are the premiere military power in this area and I would say the second or third in the world. So securing Iran's air space and flying without impairment is within it's capability. Finally they have the guts, the fortitude and will - "Never again."
Iran has no nuclear weapons, has a tin-pot third world nation military which farcically boasts claims of grandeur, has a economy and society decimated and hollowed by the Islamic revolution and the huge redirection of wealth from normal societal infrastructure into it's development of the atomic weapons program. I would also speculate on the quality of the "reinforced" structures "buried" deep underground. Israel does not have to destroy all of the parts of Iran's nuclear program they only have to destroy the part which is the most critical, deadly and most costly to permanently stop the process. Obviously the enrichment - disperse the already enriched material over a wide area, lethally contaminating the facility requiring a complete rebuild and reinvestment of billions of dollars. The financial collapse would be similar to that of the USSR, and surprise, surprise we would learn what we should already know - tin-pot dictators are all bombastic and never about substance. And democracies are about substance and never bombastic.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Dr. Ben Luce at Monument Mountain
http://preservelenoxmountain.org/
The following is in response to a video of a presentation Dr. Ben Luce made at Monument Mountain (Found on the above link to Preserve Lenox Mountain) to a friend Scott Sawyer who still lives in the area where I grew up. Scott and I have been communicating about wind turbines via Facebook.
Hey Scott,
Great presentation on the fallacy of wind power and especially visuals on the "High impact" of creating infrastructure to the sites and the final impact of seeing these turbines along the ridge line. I thought it was ironic the position Texas commanded on the chart showing which state could produce the most. Not only does Texas play a big role in oil and gas but it is tops on the ability to generate wind power!
Ben Luce was very balanced on his presentation, facts, understanding of the balance between need, ability and political and economic reality. He made a resounding "no way" argument to wind turbines. I thought he went off the rails when he began to promote solar power over wind. Yes, solar is excellent in mitigating the negatives of wind generation but as for solving the need for more electrical generation to meet growing needs I think he is as wrong as those proposing wind generation. My philosophy is people are not going to go backwards. The great increase in America's power consumption cannot be mitigated by "weatherization" and "efficiency." American's are not going to give up their laptops, Ipads, Kindles, Iphones, Smart Phones, Facebook, Google, Netflix etc. This is where the consumption is occurring - powering and charging of electronic devices and the enormous consumption by server farms like Facebook, Google and Netflix. The evidence I see is social networking, cloud computing and large corporations providing online selling, services and streaming are growing exponentially and into the future as far as anyone can predict. I also believe there is a revolution of personal servers, not computers, coming where many homes will use these servers to secure proprietary rights to their writing, photographs, music, movies and personal information. These proprietary rights and security are currently under attack from "Big Media" through their attempts to regulate, via legislation, ISP's and large server users like Facebook to root out copyright infringement. Personal servers and virtual private networks will insure individual control, privacy, security and avoid entanglement with these laws by bypassing these corporations. So by my prognosticating the future of conservation of electricity is doomed by the future skyrocketing upward trend of consumption.
My last point I would like to make is: like so many other great ideas of protecting and preserving the environment and resources - it is a fools errand. People wrapped up in doing their part will install their solar panels and reduce their consumption from the grid. But what happens to the electricity they have saved? Is it set aside for them for a later date, or has the power company slowed down the turbines and not produce that small amount? Of course not, it was gobbled up immediately by someone else who wanted it or sent to another power company who wanted it to sell. It really was not saved at all. We especially can see that now as we read reports about gasoline being exported to other countries because American's are not consuming as much. What! you mean they don't slow down production or store it for a later date? Outrageous all our conserving are going to someone else. Like the early economy cars the Pinto, Vega, and Gremlin were soon abandoned when people realized they were not making an impact on the 1970's fuel shortage and what they were actually doing was tolerating horrible cars for a lost cause. So to the solar panels and wind turbines will be left in disrepair when those who have committed themselves to conservation or alternative energies realize they are just living inconveniently.
The following is in response to a video of a presentation Dr. Ben Luce made at Monument Mountain (Found on the above link to Preserve Lenox Mountain) to a friend Scott Sawyer who still lives in the area where I grew up. Scott and I have been communicating about wind turbines via Facebook.
Hey Scott,
Great presentation on the fallacy of wind power and especially visuals on the "High impact" of creating infrastructure to the sites and the final impact of seeing these turbines along the ridge line. I thought it was ironic the position Texas commanded on the chart showing which state could produce the most. Not only does Texas play a big role in oil and gas but it is tops on the ability to generate wind power!
Ben Luce was very balanced on his presentation, facts, understanding of the balance between need, ability and political and economic reality. He made a resounding "no way" argument to wind turbines. I thought he went off the rails when he began to promote solar power over wind. Yes, solar is excellent in mitigating the negatives of wind generation but as for solving the need for more electrical generation to meet growing needs I think he is as wrong as those proposing wind generation. My philosophy is people are not going to go backwards. The great increase in America's power consumption cannot be mitigated by "weatherization" and "efficiency." American's are not going to give up their laptops, Ipads, Kindles, Iphones, Smart Phones, Facebook, Google, Netflix etc. This is where the consumption is occurring - powering and charging of electronic devices and the enormous consumption by server farms like Facebook, Google and Netflix. The evidence I see is social networking, cloud computing and large corporations providing online selling, services and streaming are growing exponentially and into the future as far as anyone can predict. I also believe there is a revolution of personal servers, not computers, coming where many homes will use these servers to secure proprietary rights to their writing, photographs, music, movies and personal information. These proprietary rights and security are currently under attack from "Big Media" through their attempts to regulate, via legislation, ISP's and large server users like Facebook to root out copyright infringement. Personal servers and virtual private networks will insure individual control, privacy, security and avoid entanglement with these laws by bypassing these corporations. So by my prognosticating the future of conservation of electricity is doomed by the future skyrocketing upward trend of consumption.
My last point I would like to make is: like so many other great ideas of protecting and preserving the environment and resources - it is a fools errand. People wrapped up in doing their part will install their solar panels and reduce their consumption from the grid. But what happens to the electricity they have saved? Is it set aside for them for a later date, or has the power company slowed down the turbines and not produce that small amount? Of course not, it was gobbled up immediately by someone else who wanted it or sent to another power company who wanted it to sell. It really was not saved at all. We especially can see that now as we read reports about gasoline being exported to other countries because American's are not consuming as much. What! you mean they don't slow down production or store it for a later date? Outrageous all our conserving are going to someone else. Like the early economy cars the Pinto, Vega, and Gremlin were soon abandoned when people realized they were not making an impact on the 1970's fuel shortage and what they were actually doing was tolerating horrible cars for a lost cause. So to the solar panels and wind turbines will be left in disrepair when those who have committed themselves to conservation or alternative energies realize they are just living inconveniently.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Is-the-Knowledge-System-Broken
Claire Berlinski - Ricochet "Is the Knowledge System Broken"
"When that paper ceases to be reliable, when it no longer functions as a signal for collateral, as an enforceable guarantee, a credible assurance, or a reasonable measure of risk, then — Whoosh! — private credit vanishes. Just as your identity does when you step up to the immigration counter and discover you’ve lost your passport."
"That’s what happened when the subprime crisis exploded. The derivatives that financed the nonperforming sub-prime mortgages were rapidly losing value, threatening to cause a run on the banks because there was — and remains— so little property knowledge about them."
I like the word "Whoosh!" It is a great descriptor for the devaluation of my own home! I had several posts to Claire on Ricochet I will share here.
So I have two more points the first a prediction - warning, the second a solution to the current horde of toxic assets.
We have yet to see non-high risk homeowners abandoning their homes. These are families who still have great stable jobs, who are affluent and continue to pay their mortgage. But what they have is a monthly mortgage payment for a home worth $1.5 million but is now worth $600,000.00. They will come to realize they were scammed by the overvaluation of housing. They will realize they will never see their home rise back to $1.5 million (Since the valuation was a scam in the first place). The idea of walking into their mortgage company and asking for a refinance to a $600.000.00 level would be smiled up on or laughed at. So what to do - abandon their down payment from their previous house sale - stop paying their mortgage and save what they would have paid for a fairly substantial down payment, abandon their home - laughing at the mortgagee as they are left holding another useless home and bid their time till they can buy a correctly valued $600,000.00 home?
An idea for a solution:
Anyone can buy a foreclosed property with certain caveats:
Must be a conventional loan - 20% down - no mortgage insurance.
Must be a conventional loan from the mortgage company holding the foreclosure.
Can either be a 15 year or 30 year mortgage.
The mortgagee cannot bundle and sell the loan.
In return for the 20% conventional loan the Federal government will allow the buyer of said above foreclosed property a special capital gains timeline:
If sold in the first year 100% capital gains is required.
If sold in the second year 6/7 capital gains is required
If sold the third year 5/7, fourth year 4/7, fifth year 3/7, sixth year 2/7, and finally the seventh year would require 1/7 the capital gains.
The eighth year would require no capital gains if sold.
Then the ninth through fifteenth year the capital gains would rise incrementally by 1/7 till the fifteenth year 100% capital gains would have to be paid.
"When that paper ceases to be reliable, when it no longer functions as a signal for collateral, as an enforceable guarantee, a credible assurance, or a reasonable measure of risk, then — Whoosh! — private credit vanishes. Just as your identity does when you step up to the immigration counter and discover you’ve lost your passport."
"That’s what happened when the subprime crisis exploded. The derivatives that financed the nonperforming sub-prime mortgages were rapidly losing value, threatening to cause a run on the banks because there was — and remains— so little property knowledge about them."
I like the word "Whoosh!" It is a great descriptor for the devaluation of my own home! I had several posts to Claire on Ricochet I will share here.
Well if knowledge about value of property and housing is what has been lost then it might make sense to correct the "perception" of value of property and housing. It is what I call fake money. Property and housing was never worth what we were told, it was always based on inflated value based on supply and demand. Just because someone said the property was worth an amount and someone paid this amount and someone financed this amount does not make it so. So if we assume it was based on falsehoods and overinflated lies then we must assume the correct value is what it will fetch today. This is an unpleasant reality to those who claim they are experts on buying, selling, financing, brokering, predicting trends and policy on real estate since they were scammed more than most. This reminds me of the time I bought a used car and thought I had a great value, till the next day when I went to start the car to find the battery was junk and I needed to purchase a battery. Just because I believed it was valued at what I had agreed to pay did not make it so.
Following my previous post; my solution, to move away from the post-war thinking of housing as an investment up-scaling at several intervals, retirees selling to extricate themselves from their mortgage, moving where housing is cheaper and buying a bigger better home, to housing as a pre-war model. A home is to be lived in, paid off in thirty years and sold with a modest gain. The first model requires inflation and necessitates rising wages leading to boom and bust cycles, less savings for retirement and college. My standard is young families. Young families will fuel the rise in housing prices (Demand) to a certain point, but when they feel too squeezed (They begin to see housing as cutting into their families well being) they will abandon the market and cause a bust or correction. The latter denotes long incremental valuation, modest homes, stable neighborhoods, life long neighbors, planned obsolescence school life cycle, substantial life long savings for retirement and college, Now I know others are going to say post - war investments are in the home, however the miracle of compound interest is in time - changing homes and up-scaling busts long term investments.
We have yet to see non-high risk homeowners abandoning their homes. These are families who still have great stable jobs, who are affluent and continue to pay their mortgage. But what they have is a monthly mortgage payment for a home worth $1.5 million but is now worth $600,000.00. They will come to realize they were scammed by the overvaluation of housing. They will realize they will never see their home rise back to $1.5 million (Since the valuation was a scam in the first place). The idea of walking into their mortgage company and asking for a refinance to a $600.000.00 level would be smiled up on or laughed at. So what to do - abandon their down payment from their previous house sale - stop paying their mortgage and save what they would have paid for a fairly substantial down payment, abandon their home - laughing at the mortgagee as they are left holding another useless home and bid their time till they can buy a correctly valued $600,000.00 home?
An idea for a solution:
Anyone can buy a foreclosed property with certain caveats:
Must be a conventional loan - 20% down - no mortgage insurance.
Must be a conventional loan from the mortgage company holding the foreclosure.
Can either be a 15 year or 30 year mortgage.
The mortgagee cannot bundle and sell the loan.
In return for the 20% conventional loan the Federal government will allow the buyer of said above foreclosed property a special capital gains timeline:
If sold in the first year 100% capital gains is required.
If sold in the second year 6/7 capital gains is required
If sold the third year 5/7, fourth year 4/7, fifth year 3/7, sixth year 2/7, and finally the seventh year would require 1/7 the capital gains.
The eighth year would require no capital gains if sold.
Then the ninth through fifteenth year the capital gains would rise incrementally by 1/7 till the fifteenth year 100% capital gains would have to be paid.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Mark Edwards Uncensored - Is Local Radio Dead? In Some Ways It Is, But Owners Don't Know It Yet
http://markontheweb.blogspot.com/2011/11/is-local-radio-dead-in-some-ways-it-is.html?utm_source=Subscribers&utm_campaign=08e916d06e-TRI_11-08-2011&utm_medium=email
I was in an all day discussion with Mark about my perceptions on Radio. I thought I would present it here:
I was in an all day discussion with Mark about my perceptions on Radio. I thought I would present it here:
I did not see it mentioned - the exclusivity of Radio. Much like telephone and cable - radio and television stations also have a monopoly on access into the American home. (And you do not need to put a crappy looking antenna on the side of your house.) No net-neutrality issues here. If local stations could see this they would understand they have a captured audience whom they should customize their programming to.
Also there has to be a new model. Young people have short attention spans so too many ads break their attention and they move onto some other media, include fewer short adds directed towards younger people, and there must be topics of interest - relationships, tech stuff, local events, reviews of pubs, interviews with brew masters, breweries, interviews with local bands (The only place I learn about local talent is through weekend inserts in the local paper), local mom and pop wineries, non-chain eateries, talk about sex, love, parenting, jobs, careers, starting small businesses, interview (Young)small business people, young people in small towns, young people in city living, security (Way to many CSI police stories.), for some examples; include a twitter account to give young people the ability to customize the programming - and be willing to go with it. Understand young people all have something playing all the times, radio just has to figure out how it will be them i.e. advertise not wasting band width because it is delivered separately via radio wave streaming. Then deliver each programming segment in podcast form downloadable for a fee.
Finally radio must realize they have a great plus - most young people watch video podcasts and they know horrible programming when they see it. Ugly people, pontificating with lousy ideas and opinions - their young, with lousy voices - no one tells them they sound horrible and cannot be understood, with lousy rates of delivery and a constant stream of interrupting or talking over each other at a cascading rate of speed with tons of references to acronyms or initials to speed up the delivery. Most pod casts are only 40 minutes to an hour even though the material they have could be talked about for two hours. Pod casters could never sustain a three hour drive time program - pod casters are not this organized, their thoughts are not organized, succinct or able to be formatted into an easy to listen format. Asking them to prepare and create an agenda with professional transitions with guests who are great interviewers and carry this of over three hours - not happening - to much work. But radio "still" has announcers who know how to do this. Radio personalities understand all of this and podcasters are satisfied with a million "hits" radio personalities are satisfied with several million listeners. Who is more hungry?
I used the word "still" because those in radio believe they are in decline so they exude this aura and young people who would like to break in with talent are discouraged and turned away. The older more distinguished seasoned, finished, professional and successful radio personalities are dissappearing leaving none to mentor, train and coach the new radio announcers. To say nothing about the producers being lost due to attrition.
Also there has to be a new model. Young people have short attention spans so too many ads break their attention and they move onto some other media, include fewer short adds directed towards younger people, and there must be topics of interest - relationships, tech stuff, local events, reviews of pubs, interviews with brew masters, breweries, interviews with local bands (The only place I learn about local talent is through weekend inserts in the local paper), local mom and pop wineries, non-chain eateries, talk about sex, love, parenting, jobs, careers, starting small businesses, interview (Young)small business people, young people in small towns, young people in city living, security (Way to many CSI police stories.), for some examples; include a twitter account to give young people the ability to customize the programming - and be willing to go with it. Understand young people all have something playing all the times, radio just has to figure out how it will be them i.e. advertise not wasting band width because it is delivered separately via radio wave streaming. Then deliver each programming segment in podcast form downloadable for a fee.
Finally radio must realize they have a great plus - most young people watch video podcasts and they know horrible programming when they see it. Ugly people, pontificating with lousy ideas and opinions - their young, with lousy voices - no one tells them they sound horrible and cannot be understood, with lousy rates of delivery and a constant stream of interrupting or talking over each other at a cascading rate of speed with tons of references to acronyms or initials to speed up the delivery. Most pod casts are only 40 minutes to an hour even though the material they have could be talked about for two hours. Pod casters could never sustain a three hour drive time program - pod casters are not this organized, their thoughts are not organized, succinct or able to be formatted into an easy to listen format. Asking them to prepare and create an agenda with professional transitions with guests who are great interviewers and carry this of over three hours - not happening - to much work. But radio "still" has announcers who know how to do this. Radio personalities understand all of this and podcasters are satisfied with a million "hits" radio personalities are satisfied with several million listeners. Who is more hungry?
I used the word "still" because those in radio believe they are in decline so they exude this aura and young people who would like to break in with talent are discouraged and turned away. The older more distinguished seasoned, finished, professional and successful radio personalities are dissappearing leaving none to mentor, train and coach the new radio announcers. To say nothing about the producers being lost due to attrition.
Both the paid podcast model (with very few exceptions) and the "interactive" model (Listener Driven Radio, Jelli) have had little success. One of the most popular podcasters with a subscription model drew just over 3200 unique visitors in September, the most recent month I have metrics for. Another podcaster draws about ten times that much traffic, but his show is advertiser supported, so there are still ads, just like OTA radio.
While some companies are working hard to shorten their ads, commercial broadcasting is still a business and sadly the cost of free over the air radio is commercials. Remember Clear Channel's "Less Is More"? Gone. Companies that capped their spot loads have removed the caps on minutes, units, or both because they have to "hit their number".
There is still a place for the young in radio, and I've worked with some immensely talented people just out of college or younger in the last few years. These people will understand the declining value of sending out one signal for all to hear and embrace the concept, technology, and experience that local radio will need to evolve into over the next decade in order to thrive. It can be done, but not by gimmicks or podcasting, but by creating individualized user experiences.
While some companies are working hard to shorten their ads, commercial broadcasting is still a business and sadly the cost of free over the air radio is commercials. Remember Clear Channel's "Less Is More"? Gone. Companies that capped their spot loads have removed the caps on minutes, units, or both because they have to "hit their number".
There is still a place for the young in radio, and I've worked with some immensely talented people just out of college or younger in the last few years. These people will understand the declining value of sending out one signal for all to hear and embrace the concept, technology, and experience that local radio will need to evolve into over the next decade in order to thrive. It can be done, but not by gimmicks or podcasting, but by creating individualized user experiences.
Mark,
I was not writing of a straight pod cast show. More like Michael Medved, Hugh Hewitt etc. where I can listen via AM radio to their regular show but their online content (Pod casts, interview transcripts, show notes, links discussion etc.) require a monthly fee for access. Two birds with one stone. With my limited understanding of Social Media (Twitter and Facebook) it is supposed to drive people to a product or company, help products or companies be better known to the internet consumer and to identify consumer trends for companies to capitalize on. Is radio outside such a model to be more listener driven through social media?
This is the problem with on air advertising - does the show support the advertisements or the advertisements support the show. For young people who have grown up with so much access to media without advertising, reduced advertising or what I call passive advertising - banner ads and flashing ads around what they are attending to, but not interrupting or stopping the stream. They are used to this way of receiving advertisements and are not tolerant of interruptions. I on the other hand have grown up and had been desensitized to the interruptions. After no television or cable and getting my media off the web with no, or reduced number of ads I am appalled at the interruptions on television even though I do not believe the quantity of ads has increased. I also listen to AM radio and know when the hard breaks are coming and mute the advertisements. This is what happens to consumers when there is a choice. This is what has happened to commercial radio and television when the age old proven model (From the dawn of radio) ran into internet delivery. I think the answer is time because for most of the existence of the web content has been undervalued i.e. giving away content. Lately the internet has been more on a bent of locking down content and requiring a fee. As this behavior increases it will become the norm and consumers will understand the pay to play mentality. Best example is Netflix. The moment they proposed, what I saw as a modest increase, a whole lot of people bailed, why because they are used to undervalued content. Where are they going to go? Back to commercial television? No more streaming? Eventually content will be seen as more valuable and the older model of advertising interruptions or a Netflix style flat fee for content will win out making commercial television and radio competitive. (At least there is no up front fee to the Telephone Company or Cable Company to hook up to radio. Think about this. My Comcast bill currently is $39.99. That fee is necessary to visit any web site. To listen to radio requires no ISP or fee. And there are still advertisements when I get to most web pages. Radio has none of this tethering to an ISP.)
Your last paragraph is totally correct. But if you think of the internet as each web site is a radio station and each web site is out to capture a specific audience or provide a portal (Google) to all the other content. Web sites are not trying to capture all the traffic only a portion - your words - "These people will understand the declining value of sending out one signal for all to hear..." Most people who run web sites, blog, sell or provide content know they are targeting only certain people not "for all to hear" or read. If you can imagine a porn site with news, weather, interviews and a tech show wrapped around porn. You would say, "That is ludicrous, those who want the porn would be put off by all the other stuff and those wanting all the other stuff would be put off by the porn." Targeting your audience and competing for this select group - which station or web site provides the pertinent content, does it in an entertaining way, making it a finished product is going to get the listeners or the hits. I keep thinking of NPR "All Things Considered" and some of their other programming. My 23 year old son listens to these shows today. We never listened to NPR when he was growing up. I think the attraction is exactly these things. These are not gimmicks they are the nature of radio, the strength of radio and the history of entertainment in this country. Consumers will purchase great programming and radio has a history of providing such a product.
I was not writing of a straight pod cast show. More like Michael Medved, Hugh Hewitt etc. where I can listen via AM radio to their regular show but their online content (Pod casts, interview transcripts, show notes, links discussion etc.) require a monthly fee for access. Two birds with one stone. With my limited understanding of Social Media (Twitter and Facebook) it is supposed to drive people to a product or company, help products or companies be better known to the internet consumer and to identify consumer trends for companies to capitalize on. Is radio outside such a model to be more listener driven through social media?
This is the problem with on air advertising - does the show support the advertisements or the advertisements support the show. For young people who have grown up with so much access to media without advertising, reduced advertising or what I call passive advertising - banner ads and flashing ads around what they are attending to, but not interrupting or stopping the stream. They are used to this way of receiving advertisements and are not tolerant of interruptions. I on the other hand have grown up and had been desensitized to the interruptions. After no television or cable and getting my media off the web with no, or reduced number of ads I am appalled at the interruptions on television even though I do not believe the quantity of ads has increased. I also listen to AM radio and know when the hard breaks are coming and mute the advertisements. This is what happens to consumers when there is a choice. This is what has happened to commercial radio and television when the age old proven model (From the dawn of radio) ran into internet delivery. I think the answer is time because for most of the existence of the web content has been undervalued i.e. giving away content. Lately the internet has been more on a bent of locking down content and requiring a fee. As this behavior increases it will become the norm and consumers will understand the pay to play mentality. Best example is Netflix. The moment they proposed, what I saw as a modest increase, a whole lot of people bailed, why because they are used to undervalued content. Where are they going to go? Back to commercial television? No more streaming? Eventually content will be seen as more valuable and the older model of advertising interruptions or a Netflix style flat fee for content will win out making commercial television and radio competitive. (At least there is no up front fee to the Telephone Company or Cable Company to hook up to radio. Think about this. My Comcast bill currently is $39.99. That fee is necessary to visit any web site. To listen to radio requires no ISP or fee. And there are still advertisements when I get to most web pages. Radio has none of this tethering to an ISP.)
Your last paragraph is totally correct. But if you think of the internet as each web site is a radio station and each web site is out to capture a specific audience or provide a portal (Google) to all the other content. Web sites are not trying to capture all the traffic only a portion - your words - "These people will understand the declining value of sending out one signal for all to hear..." Most people who run web sites, blog, sell or provide content know they are targeting only certain people not "for all to hear" or read. If you can imagine a porn site with news, weather, interviews and a tech show wrapped around porn. You would say, "That is ludicrous, those who want the porn would be put off by all the other stuff and those wanting all the other stuff would be put off by the porn." Targeting your audience and competing for this select group - which station or web site provides the pertinent content, does it in an entertaining way, making it a finished product is going to get the listeners or the hits. I keep thinking of NPR "All Things Considered" and some of their other programming. My 23 year old son listens to these shows today. We never listened to NPR when he was growing up. I think the attraction is exactly these things. These are not gimmicks they are the nature of radio, the strength of radio and the history of entertainment in this country. Consumers will purchase great programming and radio has a history of providing such a product.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Wind Turbines, Hancock MA,, November 3, 2011 - Scott Wright Sawyer
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10150373431195502
What I said about the above video presented by Mr. Sawyer on his Facebook Wall:
What I said about the above video presented by Mr. Sawyer on his Facebook Wall:
What a way to decimate the beauty and charm of New England ridge lines and forests. Yeah, in Texas, Wyoming, Oklahoma where there are desolate places nobody relishes living and not known for their beauty, but their starkness.
I give it five years when we will read about towns and counties in New England, New York and the whole of the Northeast in litigation with bankrupt businesses over abandoned windmills; which will not only be eyesores, but monuments to an abandoned industry like the mills and factories all over the northeast, not to say a danger to public safety of falling apart, blowing down or attractions for the curious and thrill seeker. Expect regular budget items for securing these sites or their removal in governmental budgets in the future as bankruptcy stipulations disavow any responsibility by the failed business. Expect a new industry to arise, requiring enormous sums of money from taxpayers, to sweep behind this failed attempt at power generation and remove these windmills.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Defending Sarah Palin
Defending Sarah Palin
I wrote the following to my brother in-law and thought I would share it here.
I followed a link from NRO about defending Michelle Bachmann to the above commentary. I can't help but remembering, as a wet behind the ears voter hearing and - I have to confess - believing much of the same about another republican outsider called Ronald Reagan. I believe this is exactly why the American people adored him and the "chattering class" and "party elites" could not stand him. I know it is why I admire him. Wasn't there a phrase - "the Teflon president" to describe how all the crap thrown at him never stuck; all the while being gracious, humorous and - the dreaded word - detached. Now when he is gone, everyone comes out from whence they hid and say, "Yes he was one of the best presidents of all time." I can't help but feel the same way I did when Barack Obama came on the scene as the outsider claiming I am an outsider and I will change the atmosphere of Washington DC. I said, "I know these lies, I have herd these lies, I have seen these lies lead to ruin!" Oh, it is Jimmy Carter again!" Well I have the same affinity to Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann especially when the party elite say, "NO, no, no, she is unelectable, she is too conservative with her talk of constitutional government, not centrist enough for the independent vote with her patriotism and pride with American exceptional-ism. She will lead the Republican party to dooom, never to recover in our lifetime." I know these truths she talks about, I have heard these truths in the founding documents, I have seen these truths turn this country around and bring prosperity to millions who had little hope and dashed dreams ten years earlier. And I saw a president who believed all of this be despised and ridiculed, stick to his guns under relentless mockery and turn this country around because of his exceptional leadership. "Oh it is Ronald Reagan again." This is why I am all in for a crap shoot for Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann than the white elite smarmy big government centrists of Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich etc. At least Palin and Bachmann generate the ire of the opposition and party elite which is worth a whole lot in political capital.
I wrote the following to my brother in-law and thought I would share it here.
I followed a link from NRO about defending Michelle Bachmann to the above commentary. I can't help but remembering, as a wet behind the ears voter hearing and - I have to confess - believing much of the same about another republican outsider called Ronald Reagan. I believe this is exactly why the American people adored him and the "chattering class" and "party elites" could not stand him. I know it is why I admire him. Wasn't there a phrase - "the Teflon president" to describe how all the crap thrown at him never stuck; all the while being gracious, humorous and - the dreaded word - detached. Now when he is gone, everyone comes out from whence they hid and say, "Yes he was one of the best presidents of all time." I can't help but feel the same way I did when Barack Obama came on the scene as the outsider claiming I am an outsider and I will change the atmosphere of Washington DC. I said, "I know these lies, I have herd these lies, I have seen these lies lead to ruin!" Oh, it is Jimmy Carter again!" Well I have the same affinity to Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann especially when the party elite say, "NO, no, no, she is unelectable, she is too conservative with her talk of constitutional government, not centrist enough for the independent vote with her patriotism and pride with American exceptional-ism. She will lead the Republican party to dooom, never to recover in our lifetime." I know these truths she talks about, I have heard these truths in the founding documents, I have seen these truths turn this country around and bring prosperity to millions who had little hope and dashed dreams ten years earlier. And I saw a president who believed all of this be despised and ridiculed, stick to his guns under relentless mockery and turn this country around because of his exceptional leadership. "Oh it is Ronald Reagan again." This is why I am all in for a crap shoot for Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann than the white elite smarmy big government centrists of Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich etc. At least Palin and Bachmann generate the ire of the opposition and party elite which is worth a whole lot in political capital.
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